Estimated lives lost since Jan 20, 2025
0
people who would have survived under prior funding levels
Accountability tracker
Estimated deaths attributable to the dismantlement of USAID and related foreign aid programs by Musk-led DOGE, beginning January 20, 2025. Based on peer-reviewed mortality projections.
Estimated lives lost since Jan 20, 2025
people who would have survived under prior funding levels
Per minute
deaths above baseline
Per hour
The Lancet estimate
Per day
700,000 / year (UCLA)
Per year
conservative estimate
Children under 5
~44% of total (UCLA)
Projected by 2030
Lancet / UCLA range
Sources
Rasella et al. (2025). The Lancet — 9.4 million projected deaths by 2030 from global aid cuts. 103 deaths/hour baseline. Read study →
Macinko et al. (2025). UCLA / The Lancet — 14 million deaths projected by 2030, 4.5 million children under 5. USAID saved 91 million lives 2001–2021. Read study →
Center for Global Development (2025) — 500,000–700,000 additional deaths annually. Read analysis →
Oxfam (2026) — child under 5 dying every 40 seconds by 2030; 200,000 child deaths projected in 2025 alone. Read analysis →
Oxford Academic / Health Policy and Planning (2026) — 45% increase in maternal mortality across West and Central Africa in 2025.
Methodology: This counter uses the conservative Center for Global Development annual estimate of 700,000 excess deaths per year (≈ 1,918/day, ≈ 79.9/hour, ≈ 1.33/minute) starting from DOGE's USAID funding freeze on January 20, 2025. The counter accumulates continuously from that start date. These are deaths above the counterfactual baseline of continued 2023-level funding — people who would statistically have survived. All figures are drawn from peer-reviewed literature. The counter does not claim precision; it illustrates the order of magnitude of a policy decision made by an unelected individual with no democratic mandate.